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Eoin Treacy of Fullermoney says that as commodities prices weaken, you need to look carefully before investing.

Q. Eoin, I've read that China's annual consumption of copper has declined from a 28.66% growth rate to 2.4%. What does that mean for continued growth in China and also for the global copper market?

A. China and indeed much of Asia and the Middle East are in a generational-long period where they have to build infrastructure from the ground up. The push for educating, housing, transporting and employing large young populations requires massive investment, fueling demand for commodities across the boards.

The supply side was completely taken unawares by this demand following the 20-year crushing bear market that cut exploration budgets to the bone. That is now changing, as major mining groups compete for the best resources, particularly in politically stable parts of the world.

China continues to lead the world in terms of GDP growth, although it has recently manufactured a slowdown to combat rising inflation, generally positive for the economy.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Yahoo!, Goldman Sachs and Bankrate were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Banc of America downgraded shares of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Neutral from Buy as they believe that even if shareholders accept Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) offer, the regulatory hurdles are significant.
• Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Perform from Outperform as they believe the current valuation is not sustainable in a year when the company will probably deliver results that will not be substantially better than peers.
• Jefferies lowered its rating on Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they believe the run-up in shares reflects expectations for strong Q4 results and guidance.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• SiRF Technology (NASDAQ: SIRF) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Weisel and to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
• Goldman downgraded Posco (NYSE: PKX) to Sell from Neutral.
• Baird downgraded Associated Bancorp (NASDAQ: ASBC) to Neutral from Buy.

FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ: FCEL) develops and markets Ultra-Clean stationary fuel cell power plants that generate electricity with up to twice the efficiency of conventional fossil fuel plants and with virtually no air pollution. The firm's fuel cells are generating power at over 60 installations worldwide, using such fuels as wastewater gas and biogas from food processing. The company receives funding from the U.S. Department of Energy and other government agencies for the development of such leading edge technologies as hybrid fuel cell/turbine generators and solid oxide fuel cells.

The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported a Q4 loss of 25 cents per share and revenues of $16.5 million. Street analysts had been looking for a 27 cent per share deficit and $13.1 million. The company also announced a 4.8 MW order from Posco (NYSE: PKX), its South Korean alliance partner. Lazard Capital subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and boosted its price target from $11 to $15, noting that FuelCell's backlog of $57.8 million was more than double the $27.9 million year ago figure and was up 17% from the $49.6 million reported in 3Q07.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tyson Foods, Unilever, Brooks Automation, Akzo Nobel and Yahoo! were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) to Buy from Hold on valuation and the potential for protein complex improvement.
  
• Goldman upgraded shares of Unilever (NYSE: UN) to Neutral from Sell to reflect the company's diversified product range and growing exposure to developing and emerging markets.
  
• Bear Stearns raised its rating on Brooks Automation (NASDAQ: BRKS) to Outperform from Peer Perform. The firm cited the company's compelling valuation and growth drivers.
  
• Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at SNS Securities, as they see absolute total return greater than 20%.
  
• CIBC upgraded Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer on valuation following the recent pullback and their analysis of Yahoo's non-operating assets. They believe Yahoo's stake in Alibaba Group is now worth about $4/share and raised their target to $31 from $28.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• First Analysis upgraded Spss Inc (NASDAQ: SPSS) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
  
• UBS upgraded Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• WestLB upgraded Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Hold from Reduce.
  
• HSBC upgraded Posco (NYSE: PKX) to Overweight from Neutral.

Inflation is above expectations, and it raises a question of what the Fed should be doing. Bloomberg News reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in September, compared to the 0.2% rise economists expected. And according to Reuters, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 1.1% -- way ahead of economists' projections of a 0.4% rise -- creating a tough problem for the Fed.

Will the Fed derive comfort from the core PPI figure, which was up 0.1%? It seems to pick numbers conveniently -- such as the 1.8% August rise in consumer inflation net of food and energy prices -- that give it comfort. Or will it view the 1.1% rise as another indicator -- along with the 4.1% rise in labor costs -- that inflation is out of control.

Why do we have a Fed anyway? Is it to bail out Wall Street through an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut? Or is it to keep inflation within a 1% to 2% range? I think the Fed is leaning towards bailing out financial markets rather than controlling inflation.

Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders. Here, we review our picks weekly.

In the seventh week since our Volatile Markets stock recommendations, only a few of our picks have seen significant movement.

After stalling last week, South Korean steelmaker Posco (NYSE: PKX), has jumped another $7.39. The 4.08% gain brings Peter Cohan's tip to $188.52, 52.02% higher than its August 16 opening price of $124.01.



Sheldon Liber's recommendation, Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP), gave back some of last week's 18.08% gain this week. Despite the Chinese utility's 6.53% knock, Huaneng still stands a formidable 30.40% higher since our volatile markets feature ran.

With the dollar hitting record lows every day, how can you make money in stocks? The short answer is to invest in growing companies based outside the U.S.

This strategy has propelled my investment newsletter to outperform the S&P 500 in the first nine months of 2007. Specifically, stocks highlighted in The Cohan Letter -- I highlight three stocks per month -- are up an average of 17%, compared to a 7% rise in the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. Which three picks have done the best?·

• Posco (NYSE: PKX) rose 48% from $92.70 to $178.77. Barry Summerlin highlighted this Korean steel company, which I suggested might do well in an August post -- it's up 46% since then;
• CVRD (NYSE: RIO) -- the Latin American telecommunications mining company -- rose 45% from $18.50 to $33.85; and
• New Oriental Education and Technology Group (NYSE: EDU) -- a Chinese educational testing company -- rose 34% from $43.75 to $65.66.

I don't know whether these particular stocks have peaked, but if the dollar keeps dropping, they could continue to do well.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders. Here, we review our picks weekly.

Week six was rough for a couple of our stock picks -- chiefly Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) -- but Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP) just had a phenomenal week. Read on.

Posco (NYSE: PKX)'s gains have tapered a bit -- Peter Cohan's pick followed up last week's 10.41% run with a modest 1.30% rise this week. Still, just six weeks since our Volatile Markets feature, the South Korean steelmaker stands 46.06% higher! Incredible.



This week's big story, however, is Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP), recommended by Sheldon Liber. The Chinese utility nearly doubled its gains as of last week, shooting 18.08% higher, closing Thursday up 39.51% in the last six weeks!

Ben Bernanke's buyout bailout is helping push the dollar to record lows. While this will make your travel outside the U.S. shockingly expensive, the Washington Post offers some ways you can invest to ease some of that pain:

• Buy foreign stocks. The U.S. investor converts dollars into the currency needed to buy the stocks, whether euros, pounds, yen or something else. Then, if the share price holds and the dollar falls, the investor gains when he sells the stock and converts the money back into dollars. If the share price has risen, the profit is even greater. Of course, if the dollar appreciates in the interim, the process works in reverse. As Barry Summerlin notes, my recommendation of Posco (NYSE: PKX) has gone up significantly since August, probably due in part to this effect.
• Buy U.S. companies with overseas earnings. buy the stocks of big, multinational U.S. companies that benefit from the weaker currency. A lower dollar helps boost U.S. exports by making them relatively cheap on world markets The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is among the beneficiaries of this trend.
• Buy CDs, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds packed with various currencies or linked to baskets of foreign exchange. More than $2.7 billion was invested in open-end currency funds by the end of July, up from $36 million at the end of July 2000, according to estimates by Lipper. So far, the falling dollar fund is the better bet: It is up 7.91% for the year, as of Thursday. The rising dollar fund is down 2.66%.

Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders. Here, we review our picks weekly.

Four weeks into our Stocks for a Volatile Market feature, our index has fallen just behind the Nasdaq, grounded mostly by shoe and apparel maker Steven Madden (NASDAQ: SHOO), picked by Kevin Kelly. After giving up $2.51 in week three, Madden dropped $3.39 in week four, falling 14.7% and leaving SHOO at $19.67, 17.77% under its August 16 price of $23.92.

Might as well get all the bad news out of the way -- it looks like Sheldon Liber's call, FreightCar America Inc. (NYSE: RAIL), has temporarily derailed. After strong gains in previous weeks, RAIL dropped $3.78 in week four -- a loss of 8.35% -- and slipped to $41.49, 4.4% under its initial price.